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Calacanis, Who Told Crypto to Pivot to AI in 2023, Says…

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Jason Calacanis told his followers to sell bitcoin on Tuesday morning, forecasting a fall to $57,000 within a year and no new all-time high ever again. The bitcoin price was $79,750 when he posted, down 0.32% on the session, so the call implies a drop of about 28%.

“If you’re in crypto pivot to AI,” he posted in 2023, telling founders to stop shipping crypto projects and start building AI companies. He is now making the same argument to holders of the asset rather than to its builders. His post ran to 380,600 views within hours, and he disclosed a position in an AI token in the replies. Nothing in the bitcoin price action on Tuesday moved to meet him.

The Bitcoin price is down 30.65% over twelve months to $79,750, and Calacanis expects another 28% from here. Source: TradingView

Calacanis Told Followers to Dump Bitcoin and Buy Super Intelligence

“A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started,” he wrote on X at 6:46 in the morning. “Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now.”

Three legs hold the case up, and only one of them carries any data at all. Exchange-traded fund withdrawals are a signal that will continue, the social pressure to own bitcoin has gone, and capital has better places to go. “Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value?” he asked, before concluding that holders should “just sell and shift from Bitcoin to Super Intelligence.” He ended with a flat prediction that bitcoin “will never break its all-time high again.”

The $57,000 figure comes with a wrinkle worth noting. He described it as testing “the 57k low again,” and Crypto Briefing reports that level as bitcoin’s 2026 low, while CoinDesk framed the forecast as a revisit without confirming a prior print at that price.

The ETF Premise Breaks on the Most Recent Session

The outflow argument is the only part of the thesis with data behind it, and the data has already turned. US spot funds did lose $635.49 million on 22 October and a further $137.94 million on 23 October, a two-day total of $773.43 million.

They then took in $110.34 million on 26 October, the last session before he posted, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for all of it. Across the six sessions from 19 October, SoSoValue data shows a net inflow of $415.07 million, because 19 and 21 October brought in $526.60 million and $528.40 million. Cumulative net inflows stand at $57.29 billion and the funds hold $102.84 billion, or 6.41% of the bitcoin price multiplied across all coins outstanding.

TradingView’s own summary notes that US spot funds have added roughly 87,000 BTC since the June low. Two heavy outflow days inside a week of net buying is a thin foundation for a call that the bitcoin price has another 28% to give.

Investor Takeaway

The ETF outflow premise behind the bitcoin price call is selective, because the six sessions to 26 October produced $415.07 million of net inflows rather than sustained withdrawals.

Galaxy Said the Opposite the Same Morning

Galaxy Research published the mirror image of this bitcoin price call a few hours earlier the same morning. Its view is that the bear market ended in June, that selling pressure has faded and that now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin.

Both arguments rest on the same two inputs and read them in opposite directions. Galaxy points to long-term holders slowing their selling and to exchange-traded funds absorbing supply. Calacanis points to fund withdrawals and a crowd that has lost interest. Galaxy also named a level that would break its thesis, a weekly close below $76,540, which is 4.1% below Tuesday’s bitcoin price and sits on the 50-week average it has tracked since September. Calacanis named no invalidation at all.

He Is Long TAO, and He Says So

The disclosure arrived in a reply a few minutes after the original post. “I am long $TAO and love bittensor’s focus on scaling AI,” he wrote, naming the token behind a network that pays participants for supplying compute, model responses and storage. TAO traded at $248.35, down 0.73%.

The position does not make the argument wrong, and it does set the frame. A call to rotate out of the bitcoin price and into AI tokens comes from someone holding an AI token, which readers are entitled to weigh. The broader thesis has a stronger version in the equity market. Anthropic is reported to be targeting an initial public offering of up to $100 billion in the week of 16 November, a listing large enough to pull risk capital away from crypto without any help from sentiment.

What a 28% Fall in the Bitcoin Price Would Take

The Bitcoin price sits on a market value of $1.60 trillion, down 9.21% for the year and 30.65% over twelve months, though still up 24.41% over three. TradingView’s oscillator, moving-average and summary readings are all neutral, and roughly $175 million of positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours with longs taking the bulk.

Calacanis is not alone in the direction of this call, only in how he frames it. One miner has put the cycle bottom at $42,000 to $44,000 in late 2026, which is lower than his number, and the bitcoin price has already spent a year below its October 2025 all-time high. Against that, Bernstein has held a $150,000 target through the drawdown, and Citigroup earlier identified about $4 billion of spot ETF withdrawals as the mechanism behind an earlier leg down, which is the same channel now running positive. The Federal Reserve decides on rates on 28 October.

Investor Takeaway

Two opposing calls on the bitcoin price landed within hours of each other, and only one of them published a level that would prove it wrong

 

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