Nebius just landed one of the largest AI infrastructure contracts in history. Goldman Sachs took notice and moved its numbers significantly.
Goldman Sachs raised its price target on Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) by $45 to $205 per share. The move follows the company’s $27 billion Meta AI contract. The stock is up approximately 8% today in response, according to 24/7 Wall St.
Goldman also raised its revenue estimates for fiscal years 2027 through 2030 by approximately 30% to 54%. The bank kept its buy rating and left its fiscal 2026 estimate unchanged.
Goldman’s prior target was $155, raised from $137 in December 2025. At the time, the firm cited an “AI demand-supply imbalance” underpinning the company’s operations. The jump to $205 represents a 32% increase from that prior target.
What the Meta contract means for Nebius revenue
The Meta deal signed on March 16 is the largest contract in Nebius history. It includes $12 billion of dedicated AI compute capacity over five years starting early 2027.
Meta also committed to purchasing an additional $15 billion in compute capacity across upcoming Nebius clusters, according to a Nebius press release.
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Nebius also holds a $19.4 billion Microsoft supply agreement and a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia. That brings its total contract stack to approximately $46 billion, TECHi reported. That is the foundation on which Goldman is now building its revised model.
The company guided for annualized recurring revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026. That compares to Q4 2025 revenue of $227.7 million, which itself represented year-over-year growth of more than 500%, 24/7 Wall St confirmed.
Why the $205 target is a significant call
A $45 raise in a single move is not routine. Goldman is saying the Meta contract changes the revenue story for 2027 through 2030 in a material way. Raising estimates by 30% to 54% across that window means the bank sees the deal as a durable revenue driver, not just a one-time win.
Nebius is still in heavy investment mode. The company plans to spend $16 billion to $20 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 alone. That includes nine new data center sites across the U.S. and Europe, according to 24/7 Wall St.
It has raised $4.34 billion in convertible debt to fund that buildout, Stock Analysis reported. When Goldman raises a target by $45 in one move, it’s signaling that the spending is likely to generate returns well above what the prior model assumed.
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What the rest of Wall Street thinks about Nebius
Goldman is not alone in its optimism. But the broader analyst landscape is not uniformly bullish.
BofA Securities initiated coverage with a buy and a $150 target. DA Davidson raised its target to $200. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated with an overweight and a $129 target on April 9, the most cautious recent call.
Freedom Capital Markets moved the other way. The firm downgraded Nebius to hold from buy, citing rapid appreciation. Shares had risen 70% since Freedom’s February initiation and were up approximately 574% over the prior year, according to Investing.com. The stock closed at $144.97 on April 10, near its 52-week high of $149.82.
The consensus across 11 analysts sits at a strong buy with an average target of $163, according to Stock Analysis. Goldman’s new $205 target now sits well above that consensus.
Key figures on Nebius and analyst targets:
- Goldman Sachs new target: $205, raised from $155, buy rating
- Revenue estimate increase FY2027-2030: 30% to 54%
- Stock reaction today: About an 8% gain
- Meta contract total value: $27 billion
- Total contract stack (Meta + Microsoft): Approximately $46 billion
- Nebius 2026 revenue guidance: $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion
- ARR target by end of 2026: $7 billion to $9 billion
- Stock 12-month gain: About 574%
- Consensus analyst target: $163, strong buy
The risk Goldman is not ignoring
Goldman kept its 2026 revenue estimate unchanged, even while raising the longer-term numbers. That is a deliberate signal. Nebius is spending aggressively against revenue that is still ramping.
There is real execution risk in scaling nine data center sites at once while managing a multi-billion dollar debt load. Freedom Capital Markets’ downgrade is a reminder the stock had already priced in significant good news before today.
At 574% gains over the prior year and an additional 8% jump today, the margin for error is thin. Goldman’s $205 target raises the ceiling. Whether Nebius reaches it depends on execution, not narrative.
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